Below are published articles, working papers, and conference presentations resulting from the CenSoc project or utilizing CenSoc data. As the project develops, we will continue to post working papers that result from this study, reports for media and other interested parties, scholarly publications, and conference presentations.
If you use the CenSoc data, please acknowledge support: This work acknowledges support from the National Institute of Aging R01AG058940, Berkeley’s Center for the Economics and Demography of Aging (5P30AG012839), and the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, Berkeley Population Center (P2CHD073964). If your work is in a peer-reviewed publication, please submit your paper to PubMed Central. Contact us if you need assistance.
Publications
Berkeley Unified Numident Mortality Database: Public Administrative Records for Individual Level Mortality Research. Demographic Research, 47-5, 111-142
Abstract: With the release of Social Security application (SS-5), claim, and death records,the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) has created a new administrativedata resource for researchers studying mortality. While much progress hasbeen made in understanding the demographic determinants of mortality in the UnitedStates using survey data, the lack of population-level register data is a […]
Late-life Changes in Ethnoracial Self-Identification: Evidence from Social Security Administrative Data: Population Research and Policy Review. 42: 10
Abstract Researchers generally recognize that ethnoracial identification may shift over the life course. However, the prevalence of these shifts across cohorts and among older adults remain open questions. Using administrative data from Social Security applications from 1984 to 2007, we quantify the magnitude and direction of later life shifts in ethnoracial self-identification among Black, White, […]
Social Insurance Programs and Later-Life Mortality: Evidence from New Deal Relief Spending. Journal of Health Economics, 86
Abstract A growing body of research explores the long-run effects of social programs and welfare spending. However, evidence linking welfare support in early life with longevity is limited. We add to this literature by evaluating the effect of in-utero and early-life exposure to the largest increases in welfare spending in the US history under the New Deal […]
Does a Prolonged Hardship Reduce Life Span? Examining the Longevity of Young Men who Lived through the 1930s Great Plains Drought. Population and Environment, 43, 530–552
Abstract The Great Plains drought of 1931–1939 was a prolonged socio-ecological disaster with widespread impacts on society, economy, and health. While its immediate impacts are well documented, we know much less about the disaster’s effects on distal human outcomes. In particular, the event’s effects on later life mortality remain almost entirely unexplored. Closing this gap […]
In utero exposure to natural disasters and later-life mortality: Evidence from earthquakes in the early twentieth century. Social Science & Medicine, 307
A growing body of research explores the effects of prenatal insults caused by natural disasters on life-cycle outcomes. This paper joins the literature by exploring the long-run effects of prenatal exposure to earthquakes on adulthood and old-age mortality. Using Social Security Administration death records (1975–2005) linked with the full-count 1940 US census and implementing a […]
Mortality Modeling of Partially Observed Cohorts Using Administrative Death Records. Population Research and Policy Review, 42, Article 36
Abstract New advances in data linkage provide mortality researchers with access to administrative datasets with millions of mortality records and rich demographic covariates. Although these new datasets allow for high-resolution mortality research, administrative mortality records often have technical limitations, such as limited mortality coverage windows and incomplete observation of survivors. We describe a method for […]
The Early Bird Catches the Worm: The Effect of Birth Order on Old-Age Mortality. Population and Development Review, 49(3)
Abstract Previous studies explore the role of birth order in children’s and adults’ outcomes. This literature usually provides evidence of disadvantage of children with higher birth order. A narrow strand of this literature explores the association between birth order and old-age mortality. This study re-visits the birth-order-longevity relationship using US data. We employ Social Security […]
Early life exposure to cigarette smoking and adult and old-age male mortality: Evidence from linked US full-count census and mortality data. Demographic Research, 49, Article 25
Abstract BACKGROUNDSmoking is a leading cause of premature death across contemporary developed nations,but few longitudinal individual-level studies have examined the long-term healthconsequences of exposure to smoking.OBJECTIVEWe examine the effect of fetal and infant exposure to exogenous variation in smoking,brought about by state-level cigarette taxation, on adulthood and old-age mortality (ages55‒73) among cohorts of boys born […]
Long-run intergenerational health benefits of women empowerment: Evidence from suffrage movements in the US. Health Economics, 32(11)
Abstract An ongoing body of research documents that women empowerment is associated with improved outcomes for children. However, little is known about the long-run effects on health outcomes. This paper adds to this literature and studies the association between maternal exposure to suffrage reforms and children’s old-age longevity. We utilize changes in suffrage laws across […]
CenSoc: Public Linked Administrative Mortality Records for Individual-level Research. Scientific Data, 10, Article 802
Abstract In the United States, much has been learned about the determinants of longevity from survey data and aggregated tabulations. However, the lack of large-scale, individual-level administrative mortality records has proven to be a barrier to further progress. We introduce the CenSoc datasets, which link the complete-count 1940 U.S. Census to Social Security mortality records. […]
The Siren Song of Cicadas: Early-Life Pesticide Exposure and Later-Life Mortality
This paper studies the long-term effects of in-utero and early-life exposure topesticide use on adulthood and old-age longevity. We use the cyclical emergenceof cicadas in eastern half of the United States as a shock that raises the pesticideuse among tree crop growing farmlands. We implement a triple-differenceframework and employ Social Security Administration death records over […]
Working Papers
The Effects of Education on Mortality: Evidence Using College Expansions
Abstract This paper explores the long-run health benefits of education for longevity. Using mortality data from the Social Security Administration (1988-2005) linked to geographic locations in the 1940-census data, we exploit changes in college availability across cohorts in local areas. We estimate an intent to treat effect of exposure to an additional 4-year college around […]
The Intergenerational Consequences of Climate Change on Later Life Mortality: Evidence from Individual-Level U.S. Death Records
Abstract Global climate change can impact populations rapidly through the increased occurrence of natural disasters and climate extremes, but also through long-term, gradual changes that alter environmental conditions and impair biological processes. Here, I investigate whether ambient temperatures in utero and during the early years of life are associated with reductions in life expectancy. I […]
Racial Disparities in Deaths Related to Extreme Temperatures in the United States between 1993 and 2005
Abstract Extreme temperatures are associated with higher overall mortality at the population level, but some individuals are more vulnerable than others. Here, we investigate how extreme temperatures affect mortality and how race stratifies this relationship in the United States. We use highly granular administrative and census data on monthly mortality in over 3,000 counties from […]
An Assessment of CenSoc Match Quality
Abstract The CenSoc datasets link individual-level 1940 Census records to Social Securitydeath records using deterministic record linkage algorithms. In this technical report, we describe our record linkage methodology and assess the accuracy and representativeness of the CenSoc Version 2.1 matches. The main takeaways of this report are: 1. The CenSoc-DMF and CenSoc-Numident datasets are comprised […]
Dust to Feed, Dust to Grey: The Effect of In-Utero Exposure to the Dust Bowl on Old-Age Longevity
Abstract Intensive agriculture and deep plowing resulted in top-soil erosion and dust storms during the 1930s. These effects have been shown to affect agricultural income and land values that persisted for years. Given the growing literature on the relevance of in-utero and early-life exposures, it is surprising that studies focusing on links between the Dust […]
Unequal before Death: The Effect of Paternal Education on Children’s Old-Age Mortality
A growing body of research documents the relevance of parental education as a marker of family socioeconomic status for children’s later-life health outcomes. A strand of this literature evaluates how the early-life environment shapes mortality outcomes during infancy and childhood. However, the evidence of mortality during the life course and old-age is limited. This paper […]
Understanding the Hispanic Mortality Paradox: Variation by Country of Origin
While Hispanics in the United States face persistent socioeconomic disadvantage,they generally experience lower mortality throughout the life course. This “Hispanic mortality paradox” is well documented in the demographic literature. Despite the importance of past research, less attention has been paid to the differential mortality experience of Hispanic subgroups in the United States. Understanding the heterogeneity […]
Early-Life Economic Conditions and Old-Age Mortality: Evidence from Historical County-Level Bank Deposit Data
This paper studies the long-run mortality effects of in-utero and early-life economic conditions. We examine how local economic conditions experienced in the Great Depression, proxied by county level banking deposits during in-utero and first years of life can influence old-age longevity. We find that a one-standarddeviation rise in per capita bank deposits is associated with […]
In Utero and Early-Life Exposure to Alcohol and Old Age Mortality: Evidence from the Temperance Movement in the US
Previous research suggests the relevance of in-utero insults and early-life circumstances for a wide array of life cycle outcomes. This research note joins this strand of studies by exploring the long-run mortality effects of in-utero and early-life exposure to alcohol accessibility. In so doing, we take advantage of the prohibition movement during the early part […]
Early-Life Income Shocks and Old-Age Mortality: Evidence from
World War I Veterans’ Bonus
In 1936, the US government enacted the later-known Bonus Act, which triggered cash transfers to about 3 million veterans who had served in World War I. The large and unexpected nature of transfers provides an opportunity to examine the impact of family income shocks on children’s long-term outcomes. This paper studies the long-run benefits of […]
Toxified to the Bone: Early-Life and Childhood Exposure to Lead and Men’s Old-Age Mortality
Several strands of research document the life-cycle impacts of lead exposure duringthe critical period of children’s development. Yet little is known about long-runeffects of lead exposure during early-life on old-age mortality outcomes. This studyexploits the staggered installation of water systems across 592 cities in the US overthe first decades of the 20th century combined with […]
Water is Life, Clean Water is Health: The Effect of Early-Life Exposure to the City-Wide Water Filtration on Old-Age
This study examines the impact of water purification on long-run old-age mortality. Weexamine the effects of in-utero and early-life exposure to improvements in water quality due to city-wide water filtration programs in 25 major American cities on later-life old-age longevity. We employ data from Social Security Administration death records linked with the 1940 census. The […]
Passing as White: Racial Identity and Old-Age Longevity
In the presence of segregations and discrimination during the late 19th and early 20thcentury, many African American men changed their racial identity and “passed”for white. Previous studies have suggested that this activity was associated withincreases in income and socioeconomic status despite the costs associated withcutting ties with their black communities. This study adds to this […]
Sociodemographic characteristics alone cannot predict individual-level longevity
Abstract There are striking disparities in longevity across sociodemographic groups in the United States. Yet, can sociodemographic characteristics meaningfully explain individual-level variation in longevity? Here, we leverage machine-learning algorithms and a large-scale administrative dataset (N = 122,651) to predict individual-level longevity using an array of social, economic, and demographic predictors. Our top-performing model explains only […]
The Longevity Benefits of Homeownership
Abstract Owning a home has long been touted as a key component of the idealized “American Dream.” Homeownership is associated with greater wealth and better health, but the causal impact of homeownership on health remains unclear. Using linked complete-count census and Social Security mortality records, we document Black-White disparities in homeownership rates and produce the […]
Conference Presentations
- Dust to Feed, Dust to Grey: The Effect of In Utero Exposure to the Dust Bowl on Old-Age Longevity ~ H. Noghani Behambari, University of Wisconsin-Madison; J. Fletcher, University of Wisconsin-Madison. April 2023, PAA Oral Session Pollutants, Pesticides, and Toxins and Late-Life Health and Mortality
- The Siren Song of Cicadas: Early-Life Pesticide Exposure and Later-Life Mortality ~ J. Fletcher, University of Wisconsin-Madison; H. NoghaniBehambari, University of Wisconsin-Madison. April 2023, PAA Oral Session Pollutants, Pesticides, and Toxins and Late-Life Health and Mortality
- Finding Siblings in National Mortality Database Using Machine Learning ~ W-t Joo, University of California, Berkeley; J. Helgertz, University of Minnesota/Lund University; J. Fletcher, University of Wisconsin–Madison; J. Goldstein, University of California, Berkeley. April 2023, PAA Flash Session Flash: Open Science in Demography and Population Studies
- Does It Matter? The Effect of Record-Linkage Algorithms on Research Results ~ C. Breen, University of California, Berkeley.April 2023, PAA Flash Session Flash: Open Science in Demography and Population Studies
- Using Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Longevity ~ C. Breen, University of California, Berkeley; N. Seltzer, University of California, Berkeley. April 2023, PAA Flash Session Flash: Socioeconomic Inequalities in Mortality
- The Impact of State Health Policy on County-Level Mortality Outcomes in the United States, 1990–2019 ~ D. Dukhovnov, University of California, Berkeley. April 2023, PAA Poster P05 Neighborhoods, Environment, and Spatial Demography
- State-Level Heterogeneity in the Rural Mortality Penalty: Evidence From Social Security Mortality Records ~ C. Soria, University of California, Berkeley; C. Breen, University of California, Berkeley. April 2023, PAA Poster P03 Mortality and Morbidity
- Old Age Life Expectancy Following the Great Mississippi River Flood of 1927 ~ S. Atherwood, University of California, Berkeley; E. Fussell, Brown University. April 2023, PAA Flash Session Flash: Internal Migration
- Health Effects of Exposure to the Aid to Dependent Children Program in Early Childhood. Christopher Lowenstein, David H. Rehkopf, and Sepideh Modrek. April 2023, PAA Poster.
- Understanding the Hispanic Mortality Paradox: Variation by Country of Origin – Andrea Miranda González, Katerine Perez, Casey F. Breen, April 2022, PAA Presentation, Atlanta, Georgia, Slides
- The Mortality Consequences of Home Ownership in the Socioeconomic Inequalities in Health, Life Expectancy, and Mortality – Casey F. Breen, April 2022, PAA Flash Session, Atlanta, Georgia, Slides
- Investigating Excess Mortality Among Older U.S. Adults During and After the Anomalously Severe 1980 Heat Wave – Serge Atherwood, April 2022, PAA Poster, Atlanta, Georgia, Slides
- Mortality Modeling of Partially Observed Cohorts Using Administrative Death Records – Joshua R. Goldstein, Casey F. Breen, Serge Atherwood, Maria Osborne, Leslie Root, Nathan Seltzer, and Jordan Weiss, April 2022, PAA Presentation, Atlanta, Georgia, Slides
- Census Race Categories and the Mortality of Mixed-Race American Men in the Twentieth Century – Maria Osborne, April 2022, PAA Presentation, Atlanta, Georgia, Slides
- The Surprising Staircase: A New, High Resolution Look at the Effect of Education on Longevity in the United States [in progress] – Joshua R. Goldstein and Ryan Edwards, April 2020, PAA Presentation, Washington, D.C.
- How wrong are we? Using middle initials to estimate mismatch rates and reduce bias in regression coefficients – Joshua R. Goldstein, February 10, 2020 BPC Min-Conference on Record Linkage, Berkeley, Slides
- Gompertz Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Truncated Death Distributions -Joshua R. Goldstein, November 8, 2019 CenSoc Team Meeting, Slides
- The Intergenerational Persistence of Immigrant Mortality Advantage – Joshua R. Goldstein and Mao-Mei Liu, 2019, PAA Presentation, Denver
- Towards a New, Public Dataset for Studying Mortality Inequality – Joshua R. Goldstein and Monica Alexander, April 2017, PAA Presentation, Chicago Slides
Please get in touch if you have a publication or working paper you would like to be included on this page